Climate Change Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa: An Overview and Analysis of Scenarios and Models

2009/04 - Deutsches Institut fuer Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Discussion paper No. 3, Author: Christoph Mueller

Abstract:

Significant climate change is expected over the 21st century; it will affect ecosystems and access to natural resources such as fertile land and water. Regions with low adaptive capacity due to poverty, lack of infrastructure, services, and appropriate governance will be most severely affected. Sub-Saharan Africa is, due to its low economic development and the diversity of local conditions, a region that needs special attention in developing adaptation strategies.

Climate impacts and the adaptive capacity of societies determine their vulnerability to climate change. The extent of climate change and spatial patterns of impacts are, however, highly uncertain. This report supplies background knowledge on climate change in sub-Saharan Africa, including uncertainties and basic assumptions of climate change projections. Impact studies are only roughly summarized here, as a systematic evaluationof the wealth of specific case studies available would by far exceed the scope of this report.

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Financial Support to Developing Countries for Climate Change: Is the EU Meeting its Commitments?

2009/04 - Institute for European Environmental Policy (IIEP); Study, Authors: Marc Pallemaerts, Jonathan Armstrong

Abstract:

An IEEP study looks into how the EU has fulfilled a crucial commitment within the so-called Bonn Declaration of 2001, a collective agreement of the then EU-15 and five other OECD donor countries to provide financial support to developing countries for climate change adaptation and mitigation. The report finds that although some support has been provided there is no official document issued by the EU with reliable and verifiable information on the total figures. The study concludes: "The lack of transparency is clearly inconsistent with the EU’s claim to global leadership in the climate change process."

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Comments to the Chronic Poverty Report 2008-2009

2009/04 - European Journal of Development Research (EJDR), Vol.21, Issue 2

Abstract:

In his introduction to the last issue of the EJDR, Rajneesh Narula, our Editor-in-Chief, announced the creation of an occasional specially themed debate section that would focus on landmark development reports, something that we felt has often been lacking in the past in academic development journals. We are pleased to present the first of such a section on the Chronic Poverty Research Centre's (CPRC) recently published Chronic Poverty Report 2008–2009.

The current European Journal of Development Research (EJDR) publishes a number of comments regarding the Chronic Poverty Report 2008-2009. 

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Financial Inclusion, Poverty Reduction and the Millennium Development Goals

2009/04 - European Journal of Development Research (EJDR), Vol.21, Issue 2, Abstract, Author: Michael Chibba. The Full Article is available through EADI Membership.

Abstract:

Although the chosen and conventional approaches to tackling poverty and other millennium development goals (MDGs) are useful and necessary, they are not sufficient to address the challenge. Financial inclusion (FI) offers incremental and complementary solutions to tackle poverty, to promote inclusive development and to address the MDGs. This treatise is advanced in the following ways: (i) based on the FI-poverty reduction (PR)-MDG nexus, and supported by field research and related literature, the key pillars of FI are outlined; (ii) several international cases are discussed to extract lessons learned; and (iii) explanatory FI models are presented. Given the current global financial crisis, the need to scale-up FI efforts is now more imperative than at any other time in recent history. This paper also offers potentially useful approaches to planning, policy-making and programming in order to strengthen the FI-PR-MDG nexus.

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Reducing Carbon Emissions: China's Position

2009/03 - Institute of Development Studies (IDS), Climate Light March 2009, Author: Frauke Urban

Abstract:

China is the world’s highest emitter of Greenhouse gases and many outside China argue that it should cap emissions. However, espite a booming economy, Chinese energy use per person is far lower than in developed countries – on average six times lower than the US in 2005. Although millions still rely on coal as their major energy source, CO2 emissions per person were more than five times lower in China than in the US in 2004.

Under the current Kyoto Protocol – which targets the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions – Annex I (developed countries) have binding commitments to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, while developing countries such us China do not. The international climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009 are likely to form the basis for a post-2012 climate agreement on a new set of commitments. Some feel that large rapidly-developing countries like China, India, Brazil and South Africa should also commit to legally binding emission targets because of their increasing emissions.

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Providing Aid in Insecure Environments: 2009 Update

2009/04 - Overseas Development Institute (ODI), HPG Policy Brief 34, Authors: Abby Stoddard et al.

Abstract:

In 2008, 260 humanitarian aid workers were killed, kidnapped or seriously injured in violent attacks – the highest yearly toll on record. The majority of these attacks took place in just countries: Sudan, Afghanistan and Somalia. Kidnappings in particular have increased since 2006, increasing 350% compared since 2006. The fatality rate of aid workers from malicious acts alone surpassed that of United Nations peacekeeping soldiers in 2008. In the most violent contexts for aid workers, politically motivated attacks have risen relative to common crime and banditry, as international aid organisations are perceived as part of Western geopolitical interests.

This HPG Policy Brief analyses 12 years worth of data on attacks on aid workers. The figures are examined by location, tactics, and the types of organisation and staff affected. The sharpest increases in attack rates have been suffered by international (expatriate) staff of non-governmental organisations (NGOs).  UN aid agencies have seen attack rates rise mainly for their national staff members and local contractors, particularly truck drivers. Despite the recent upswing in international staff attacks, the long-term trend suggests the casualty rate of national staff  is rising faster than international staff. The International Committee of the Red Cross is the only humanitarian organisation examined to have a decrease in attacks against the organisation in the past few years, although it has by no means been immune.

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Caught in the Conflict: Civilians and the International Security Strategy in Afghanistan

2009/04 - Oxfam GB, Briefing Paper, Author: Matt Waldman

Abstract:

A briefing paper by eleven NGOs operating in Afghanistan for the NATO Heads of State and Government Summit, 3-4 April 2009

This paper makes recommendations on how the security strategy of the international community should be changed in order to minimise the harm caused to Afghan civilians and reduce the disruption to development and humanitarian activities in the current environment in Afghanistan.

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Indian Involvement in Afghanistan: Stepping Stone or Stubling Block to Regional Hegemony?

2009/04 - German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA), Working Paper No. 98, Author: Melanie Hanif

Abstract:

Due to its geo-strategic location between the Central Asian, South Asian, and Middle Eastern security complexes, Afghanistan is often defined as an insulator state, and sometimes also as a connector. This in-between position has led to constant instability: ever since the creation of the Durrani Empire, the country has suffered from internal power struggles as well as outside interference. External attempts to control Afghanistan have nonetheless proven extremely difficult. This also holds true for the current conflict management efforts of the US-led coalition. But what could the alternatives be? This paper seeks to explore the prospect of regional security cooperation as a path towards stability for Afghanistan. Although the academic debate has thus far not considered Afghanistan as a primarily South Asian country, I will focus on the South Asian subsystem for three reasons: Firstly, current security matters in Afghanistan are highly connected to the situation in Pakistan. Secondly, with its accession to the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Afghanistan has shown an interest in establishing stronger ties with South Asia. Thirdly, India as a rising regional power is the only country in the region that might possess the capabilities, the willingness, and the legitimacy for a long-term engagement in Afghan security.

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Digging for Peace: Private Companies and Emerging Economies in Zones of Conflict

2009/04 - Bonn International Centre for Conversion (BICC), Briefing Paper No. 38, Editors: Lena Guesnet et al.

Abstract:

The  year  2009  marks  the  tenth  anniversary  of the   Fatal   Transactions   advocacy   network,   an umbrella group   of   European   and   African   non-governmental  organizations  which  campaigns  for the  transformation  of  resource-related  conflicts  in Sub-Saharan Africa.

As one of the founding members of the network, our colleague Anne Jung of Medico International, said during the conference, Fatal  Transactions  began  its  work  following  reports of  atrocities  committed  in  Angola,  the  Democratic Republic  of  the  Congo  (DRC)  and  Sierra  Leone.  It soon became clear that natural resources, such as crude  oil,  diamonds  and  different  minerals,  were playing a crucial role in these, and other conflicts. It is the revenue from the production and sale of these resources,  which  allows  both  government  forces and  rebel  groups  to  import  arms  and  ammunition. Following  the  end  of  the  Cold  War,  large  parts  of the  African  continent  had  begun  to  slide  off  the strategic map of the international powers (a trend, which   was   partially   reversed   after   the   terrorist attacks  of  11  September  2001).  The  development contributed to the decline of political regimes from Monrovia  to  Kinshasa,  as  well  as  to  the  growing prominence of natural resources in African conflicts (often substituting for military aid from international patrons).  Not  only  did  conflict  commodities  play an  important  role  in  greasing  the  wheels  of  war economies across the continent, they also changed the way wars were being fought. Whereas previously the strategic goal had been to control territories and populations,  ultimately  aiming  to  capture  political power,  modern-day  warlords  are  often  content  to occupy mines and transport corridors.

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The African Union and the Challenges of Implementing the “Responsibility to Protect”

2009/04 - Nordic Africa Institute (NAI), Policy Note, Author: Dan Kuwali

Abstract:

The concept of the “responsibility to protect” (“R2P”) was endorsed by the world’s leaders sitting at the 2005 World Summit level in the UN General Assembly. The World Summit Outcome Document affirmed that every sovereign government has a responsibility to protect its citizens and those within its jurisdiction from genocide, war crimes, “ethnic cleansing” and crimes against humanity (UN 2005 paras. 138–139). The concept of R2P is cast in the three core pillars: first, an affirmation of the primary and continuing obligation of individual states to protect its population from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity, as well as incitement thereof; second, a commitment by the international community to assist states in meeting these obligations; and third, acceptance by UN member states of their responsibility to respond in a timely and decisive manner through the UN Security Council, if national authorities are manifestly failing to protect their populations from these mass atrocity crimes. R2P is a restatement of positive binding obligations of states to protect their citizens from mass atrocity crimes; and the collective responsibility to the international community to prevent mass atrocity crimes. R2P is about taking effective action at the earliest possible stage (Evans 2008). These obligations are particularly relevant to Africa in the face of crises such as those in Sudan (Darfur), parts of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Somalia. It is, however, rather early to pass definitive judgement on the relatively young notion of R2P without addressing some of the challenges confronting its implementation in Africa.
Dan Kuwali is a Fellow at the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. He is also the Deputy Director of Legal Services of the Malawi Defence Force. This Policy Note is an extract from his research during his stay under the Nordic Guest Researcher Scholarship Programme at the Nordic Africa Institute in May/June 2008.

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