Demography

Carlos M. Lopes



Abstract

This demographic analysis of the process of accelerated population growth in Luanda and Maputo during the 1980s and 1990s is an attempt to:

  • Characterise the patterns of the population growth;
  • Identify the key explanatory factors of the accelerated population growth;
  • Assess the impact of natural growth;
  • Assess the impact of rural-urban migration upon the population growth;
  • Analyse the underlying causes and effects of the processes of accelerated population;
  • Compare the situation of the two cities.

The demographic research was primarily based on a review of the available literature, as well as accessible Angolan and Mozambican statistical data. Statistical data published by international organisations such as the United Nations (UNDP and UNFPA) were also used.
The establishment of comparisons of demographic growth and its characteristics in Luanda and Maputo in the 1980s and 1990s was bound by the limitations (homogeneity, quantity and quality) of the available information. The armed conflicts ravaging in the two countries amplified the traditional exodus from the rural areas (motivated by rural/urban push and pull) by substantial forced population movements. Despite fundamental similarities between the two situations, there are also differences, concerning size, timeframe and specific circumstances rooted in the urban development patterns of the two cities.
Natural growth - a consequence of high fertility rates - has also been singled out as a major factor to explain the accelerated population growth in Luanda and Maputo. Public policy measures (or the lack of them) equally had a significant influence upon the rate and characteristics of these growth processes.
The paper also assesses some of the main socioeconomic impacts of accelerated population growth in both cities, in the context of social expenditure cuts brought about by liberal macroeconomic orientations. From there, it moves to identifying the way in which some of the effects caused by accelerated population growth in Luanda and Maputo have themselves become major factors in determining future growth rates. Finally, a few concluding remarks are presented concerning the need for a well-informed population policy as a crucial condition for any efficient development and poverty reduction strategy.